Bitcoin Continues Offensive as Holiday Season Nears

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Bitcoin is continuing its attack on the $332 level. Earlier today we bounced off $332.92. After a small retracement to $326.66, BTC/USD is back on the offensive, hitting a high of $334.46 before pulling back. We are currently quoted at the $330 round figure on BTC-E. Prices are higher on other exchanges, $335 on OKCoin and $336 on BitStamp.


The price action near the $330-$335 resistance area confirms the importance of this level. A breakout beyond $335 per coin should invalidate the downtrend. The longer bitcoin stays at these levels, the more odds increase for a move higher. A break of $335 may lead to some gains toward $350 but to start a new rally, BTC will need to take out $375. On the downside, a break of $300 should lead to renewed losses toward $285 and $266.

The holiday season is getting near and with it, we can expect a period of lower liquidity and tighter trading ranges. For clues on what may happen next, let’s take a look at last year’s holiday season. On the daily chart below, the period from December 24th 2013 to January 1st 2014 is marked with a yellow rectangle. You can clearly see smaller daily bars and price entering a congestion during this period. The 14 day Average Daily Range, an objective measure of volatility, declined from 118 on December 23rd to 56 on January 2nd, a decrease of over 50 percent.


But not all is lost! If history is any guide, after the holiday season ends on January 2nd we should expect some nice breakouts and an easier trading environment.

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