Like equities the crypto sector has been enjoying a steady stream of buying interest over the past week. Bitcoin HODLers in particular may begin to relax a little again after having been on a roller coaster of losses and frustrations since the beginning of this year. The $10k was won only 2 1/2 months ago after which BTC doubled to almost $20k a mere two weeks later. Not taking profits at this point IMNSHO was a crime against humanity and the ensuing extermination event was well deserved.
Having their paper value cut by over 2/3 all the way down to $6000 (exactly by the way) is a lesson I hope any remaining crypto traders will soon forget as I’m very much looking forward to future short trading opportunities.
But seriously speaking now, this was a most productive shake out and since everything in crypto transpires in dog years (i.e. multiplied by 7) we could even call it a full fledged bear market. Thus far the advance higher has been pretty textbook and it’s not unusual that a first stab into $10k would be met with instant rejection. Like in the dating world a bit of persistence can go a long way – but don’t be creepy!
I’m taking out a small exploratory long position here with a stop < 9500. We don’t have confirmation yet and there is a pretty decent chance that we’re going to see another leg lower, or perhaps worse that this is just a swing higher before BTC (and cryptos in general) return to the woodshed. So easy does it for now.
I’m glad that I held on to crude as it finally seems to be taking off. My stop now goes to -0.5 ISL which is not something I do often. However I think in this case it’s warranted as I do want to reduce my risk a wee bit but at the same time give it enough room to run. I have big plans for crude!
The E-Mini also continues to be in good shape. Up up and away! Yeah I wish but the ugly reality here is that this could also just be a fast snapback in a new bear cycle. Until we have a bit of pull back and a recovery this is nothing but a first bounce higher. The breach of 2727 is positive and needs to be held. If we see weakness today and going into Monday then I may actually decide to grab a short position.
By the way I could be holding my debit spread longer as it’s largely insensitive to theta burn, another advantage when trading extended positions, but I now need to close it out as price has reached my spread’s max earning potential.
My EUR/USD long campaign is also in profitable territory but may soon be stopped out at +1R by the time you read this. Nothing really to say or do here – whipsaw happens and I’m glad I was able to squeeze a bit of coin out of its shenanigans.
One more entry opportunity before the weekend but you got to be a sub to see it:
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