Dangling By A Thread

The Dollar has hit new 3-month lows after the Fed’s rather dovish minutes yesterday and not surprisingly that gave equities a much needed boost. Not a minute too late IMNSHO as they were just about to run out of steam. There has however been a bit of degradation which my open campaign has been able to survive. Thus far that is, as my trailing stop is dangling by a thread.

Thus far I’ve racked up 1.2R which isn’t too much to write home about. But even if stopped out at my trail I feel pretty confident about finding a new entry after a more extended correction. Which incidentally may be long or short – we shall see how things unfold.

Crude however is looking extremely positive and I’ve advanced my trail to about 1.8R near CLG9 50.50.

So I’m back in gold after doing an brilliant job of placing my stop right at the tail end of the the recent downward correction. My new entry is only a few ticks higher and my new ISL is the old ISL.

Let me be honest, this is a tough call to make for me psychologically but I’d be damned to let recency bias direct my decision making when it comes to picking my entries. After all had I not been long before I would pick this one every single time.

A more conservative route is to wait for a push > GCG9 1300 which effectively disqualifies the current retest variation sell (RTVS) pattern.

But wait – there is more! Please meet me in the lair 😉


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Public Service Announcement

Please check out the new ‘random cognitive bias’ widget on the top right of this page. As you know I have covered this topic extensively but came across this clever collection of cards yesterday.

Which then inspired me to hack up an image widget for WordPress that shows you one of 26 cognitive biases whenever you reload the page. I strongly suggest you take a moment to meditate on a new one every single day until you know them all by heart.


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