US Core Retail Sales is a high impact tradable release and since it’s scheduled at the same time as the Core CPI, I’d recommend paying close attention to both releases. Since either has the potential of really impacting the short-term market, unless we get a consensus, I’d recommend just staying out. At the end of the day, I would focus more on the CPI as its effects are considered long-term.
Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.2% Previous 1.0%
DEVIATION: 0.5% (BUY USD 0.7% / SELL USD -0.3%)
The Trade Plan
The plan to trade this release is straightforward. We are going to wait for 0.7% release or better to BUY USD, or a -0.3% or worse to SELL USD. If we get an in-between release, we´ll need to look at the pre-release market condition and sentiment in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.
We will trade this news release using after news retracement method, I will pay attention to both headline and Core Retail Sales figures, but my focus will be on the Core figure. Remember to use the recommended pair above and verify the pairs to trade 1 minute before the release, or you can just use the default pair of USDJPY or EURUSD.
For more information on my trading method: http://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/
I’d recommend using the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: EURUSD.
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is an opposite.
“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”
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